Mitihoon – SCB WEALTH introduces a comprehensive team of investment experts under its holistic concept, organizing an SCB WEALTH Holistic Experts event. Themed “Tomorrow’s Wealth: Key Investment Trends Defining 2025,” the event delves into economic trends and investment strategies for 2025. It highlights curated products tailored to clients’ needs, focusing on enhancing asset value across every stage of life. SCB EIC forecasts slower global economic growth this year, influenced by the Trump 2.0 policy, which impacts trade, investment, and labor mobility. The Fed is expected to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points to counter inflation risks from tariffs and stimulate domestic investment. Thailand’s economy is projected to grow at 2.4%, constrained by US trade barriers targeting Thai exports to support domestic supply chains. To address these challenges, the Bank of Thailand may cut interest rates to 2% in the first half of the year. SCB CIO emphasizes the US stock market as the most promising, with strong corporate earnings growth potential. Despite high valuations, long-term investments in Quality Growth stocks aligned with AI trends are recommended. Meanwhile, InnovestX suggests speculative investments, with the Thai stock index projected to reach 1,550 points, driven by improved corporate performance and government economic stimulus measures. The Family Office stands ready to provide personalized investment advice, ensuring financial growth and security at every stage of life.
Mr.Sonchai Suneta (CFA), First Executive Vice President of Wealth & Investment Product Function at Siam Commercial Bank, announced that SCB WEALTH has organized the SCB WEALTH Holistic Experts event under the theme “Tomorrow’s Wealth: Key Investment Trends Defining 2025.” The event aims to provide in-depth insights into economic and investment trends, highlighting key opportunities and risks that investors should closely monitor in 2025. A team of investment experts, specializing in all aspects of economics and investment, will offer comprehensive advice through SCB WEALTH Holistic, equipping investors with the knowledge and strategies needed to navigate the rapidly evolving economic and capital market landscape with confidence and efficiency. At its core, SCB WEALTH remains committed to a customer-centric approach, offering tailored investment solutions that align with individual needs at every life stage. This ensures continuous wealth accumulation and a secure financial future, especially for retirement planning, while enabling the stable and sustainable transfer of heritage and wealth to the next generation.
Dr.Poonyawat Sreesing, Senior Economist at the SCB Economic Intelligence Center (SCB EIC), Siam Commercial Bank, revealed that SCB EIC projects the global economy in 2025 to slow down to 2.5%. While short-term pressures are expected to ease following continued declines in inflation and interest rate trends, structural challenges are likely to intensify. Notably, the “Trump 2.0” policies in the United States are expected to escalate geopolitical tensions and global trade protectionism, impacting the global economy through trade, investment, and labor mobility channels. Although various countries are expected to implement government measures to mitigate some of the negative effects of “Trump 2.0.”, political conflicts in some countries could pose significant risks for efficient policy responses.
Global monetary easing in 2025 is expected to diverge and remain highly uncertain. The U.S. Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates by a total of 50 BPS this year, lower than previously projected, to address inflation risks stemming from the “Trump 2.0” policies, particularly import tariff hikes and domestic investment stimulation. The European Central Bank and the People’s Bank of China are expected to reduce rates further this year by 125 and 50 BPS this year, respectively, exceeding earlier forecasts, to cushion their economies from additional pressures arising from “Trump 2.0” policies. The global inflationary pressures are likely to remain subdued, partly due to a worsening global economy and declining global energy prices driven by weaker demand and increased crude oil production in the U.S. under Trump’s supportive policies.
The Thai economy in 2025 is projected to grow at a slower pace of 2.4%, driven by intensifying trade protectionism under Trump 2.0 policies as most Thai exports to the U.S. could be targeted to reduce U.S. trade deficit and to promote domestic supply chain. Additionally, the renewed trade wars could increase Chinese imports into Thailand, further exerting pressures on competitiveness of Thai products in both domestic and global markets. As a result, Thai export growth is expected to slow, particularly in the second half of the year, when U.S. tariff hike taking effect across various trading partners. Private investment is projected to recover in 2024, though the rebound is expected to remain modest due to ongoing challenges in the industrial sector, including competition from Chinese imports and weak domestic demand.
During this year, a limited recovery in household income and the overall economy together with multiple risks, household debt problems are expected to improve slowly, pressured on private consumption. Further monitoring of the quality of retail lending is warranted amidst financial institutions’ cautious credit standards.
SCB EIC expects a further cut at least once toward 2% expected in the first half of 2025 to help ease the debt burden and partially alleviate the impact of tight financial conditions on economic activities. The additional rate cuts will depend on the need to utilize policy space to cushion rising economic risks stemming from internal vulnerabilities and external challenges. Moreover, the rate cut could
Ms.Kasree Ayuttaga, Senior Vice President and Team Head of Investment Research at SCB Chief Investment Office (SCB CIO), Siam Commercial Bank, stated that in 2025, SCB CIO anticipates that investing in the stock market presents greater return potential compared to other asset classes. This outlook is driven by three key factors shaping the global investment landscape:
1) Uncertainty Surrounding Trump 2.0 Policies: The economic and financial market outlook remains uncertain due to policies under the Trump 2.0 administration. Key policies include immigration restrictions, regulatory rollbacks, higher import tariffs, and income tax cuts. Market-friendly policies, such as regulatory easing and budget deficit controls, may stimulate economic growth and create opportunities for risk assets. Less favorable policies, including extending personal income tax cuts while significantly increasing import tariffs on key trading partners, could exacerbate the budget deficit and fuel inflationary pressures. Moreover, broad-based import tariff hikes may lead to US dollar appreciation, contradicting Trump’s goal of a weaker dollar to support the manufacturing sector.
2) Inflation Concerns and Interest Rate Trends: Persistent inflationary pressures in the US, driven by Trump’s policies, are influencing the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. Interest rate cuts are likely to occur at a slower pace than initially anticipated. Short-term US government bond yields have a lower likelihood of declining, while long-term bond yields may rise, steepening the US Treasury yield curve. As a result, investments in short-term debt instruments are expected to be less affected compared to long-term bonds. However, if concerns over the global economy escalate—such as intensified trade retaliation the market may revise its expectations for more aggressive Fed rate cuts, potentially leading to a decline in bond yields.
3) AI-Driven Economic and Investment Opportunities: Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to continue driving economic and investment opportunities, with the US positioned to benefit significantly compared to other nations. Investment in AI-related infrastructure, including data centers, processing systems, and energy resources, will play a crucial role in supporting AI growth. AI investments will not only create opportunities in the technology sector, particularly in software but will also extend to infrastructure sectors such as utilities and industrial applications.
When assessing the attractiveness of global stock markets, the US stock market stands out as the most promising, with the potential to outperform global peers. This is driven by strong corporate earnings growth potential and a well-diversified profit base. However, given the relatively high valuations, a long-term investment approach is recommended. Investors are advised to focus on Quality Growth stocks that align with AI-driven trends, complemented by Defensive stocks, which have stable revenues and profits that are less affected by economic policy uncertainties. Additionally, there are short-term investment opportunities in US mid- and small-cap stocks, which are likely to benefit from Trump’s economic stimulus policies. In contrast, emerging stock markets in Asia face challenges from rising US 10-year bond yields, a strengthening US dollar, and uncertainties surrounding US trade protectionist policies. As a result, these markets may be less attractive for short-term investments. However, they offer long-term potential, driven by specific supporting factors, especially in China’s A-Share market and the stock markets of India, Indonesia, and Thailand. The Vietnamese stock market, currently classified as a frontier market, presents short-term investment opportunities due to its potential upgrade to emerging market status. However, volatility risks remain high due to various market challenges. To manage portfolio risks, SCB CIO recommends a strategic approach that includes long-term investments in US investment-grade bonds with short durations, offering attractive yields; diversification into REITs and mixed asset funds to ensure steady cash flow generation; and gold investments to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks.
Mr. Sukit Udomsirikul, Managing Director of the Research Division at InnovestX Securities Co., Ltd., stated that investment in 2025 is expected to experience “high volatility, low returns.” As a result, the most suitable investment strategy for the year will be “speculative trading,” given several key challenges, including 1) Donald Trump’s economic and political policies are likely to have significant global implications over the next four years; 2) Increased financial market volatility driven by the rapid flow of information and news, especially given the communication styles of figures such as Donald Trump and Elon Musk, who frequently utilize social media platforms; 3) High stock valuations in the US market, particularly in the technology sector, pose downside risks if unexpected events occur; 4) The global economy faces structural challenges, including rising debt levels and the growing impact of climate change; and 5) Trump’s tax policies, expected to contribute to potential currency wars. Despite these challenges, supportive factors for the financial markets include the US Federal Reserve’s easing monetary policy and economic stimulus measures implemented by various countries, particularly China, aimed at mitigating the effects of US tax increases.
The SET Index target for 2025 is projected at 1,550 points, supported by improving corporate earnings and government-driven economic stimulus measures. Sectors expected to deliver outstanding returns include those with a high proportion of domestic revenue and defensive characteristics, such as Food and Beverage, Healthcare, and Commercial sectors. InnovestX recommends focusing on four key stock categories to navigate market volatility effectively: 1) Value Stocks: AOT, BBL, CPALL; 2) Dividend Stocks: AP, BCP, LHHOTEL; 3) Laggard Stocks: BCH, GPSC, HMPRO; and 4) Mid-Small Cap Growth Stocks: AMATA, AU, INSET.
Dr. Niti Nerngchamnong, First Senior Vice President and Head of Wealth Planning and Family Office at Siam Commercial Bank (SCB), revealed that in 2024 and continuing into 2025, Wealth and Family Business clients are increasingly focused on managing and transferring assets both domestically and internationally. They are also prioritizing succession planning, business structuring, and investing in new ventures to maximize wealth accumulation and facilitate seamless generational wealth and business transitions. To meet these evolving needs, SCB provides Holistic Solutions that cater to clients across all age groups. These solutions encompass investment strategies for Wealth Accumulation, Wealth Planning, and Wealth Transfer.
SCB aims to serve as a trusted advisor and strategic partner, offering customer-centric services tailored to each life stage and unique family context. The Wealth Planning and Family Office service provides expert guidance in asset management, family business operations, and inheritance planning through a three-pronged approach: Navigate, Facilitate, and Initial Advice. These services cater to all generations, encompassing a wide range of solutions to support family wealth and business sustainability. They include developing family foundations by establishing core values, governance structures, and intergenerational business connections to ensure continuity. Legal and financial structuring services provide support in crafting family constitutions, prenuptial agreements, asset inventories, wills, living wills, and frameworks for conflict resolution through mediation or arbitration. In terms of family business strategy, SCB offers expert advice on setting up holding companies, and investment entities, expanding into new markets, and creating new growth opportunities through New S-Curve strategies. Exit and growth planning services focus on guiding families through strategic initiatives such as Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and implementing risk mitigation strategies to safeguard family-owned businesses from external influence. Furthermore, tax and insurance planning helps optimize wealth transfer through tailored strategies, including inheritance tax planning, life insurance solutions, and tax planning for international investments.
SCB’s Wealth Planning and Family Office recognizes the importance of Family Resource Planning in building a lasting legacy for future generations. Special emphasis is placed on preparing heirs from Gen Alpha and Gen Beta to take on future responsibilities. This preparation involves instilling core family values, encompassing essential beliefs, culture, ethics, and social responsibilities aligned with ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) principles. It also includes comprehensive succession planning, with clearly defined policies for asset transfer, leadership succession, and roles within the family business. Additionally, SCB emphasizes family governance by establishing guidelines for member responsibilities, benefits, and conduct, including restrictions and welfare provisions. Key documentation, such as family constitutions, shareholder agreements, and wills, serves as formal frameworks to support these efforts. However, beyond documentation, SCB underscores the importance of fostering a shared vision, participation, and unity among family members. Ultimately, SCB’s holistic approach aims to create a strong intellectual and spiritual foundation, ensuring the sustainable growth of family wealth and business for generations to come.
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