Mitihoon – President Donald Trump’s inaugural address for his second presidency reverberated through both U.S. and international markets. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast stronger U.S. economic growth while cautioning that dramatic policy shifts could create headwinds for other economies and complicate monetary easing efforts by central banks worldwide. In the aftermath, U.S. treasury yields pushed higher as the dollar extends its rally.
SET Senior Executive Vice President Soraphol Tulayasathien noted that the heavy concentration of U.S. market capitalization in a handful AI-technology stocks presents vulnerability to a major correction. Given the policy uncertainty, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may move toward monetary easing sooner than anticipated. This scenario could catalyze capital outflows from the U.S. market to emerging economies, with Thailand’s stock market emerging as an attractive destination due to its low volatility, evidenced by the SET Index’s end-of-day volatility. The Thai stock market’s additional strength is the consistently strong dividend yield, with Thai stocks maintaining an average yield of 3.14 percent since 2000 to date. The Thai stock market thus positions itself as a compelling safe haven for investors pursuing defensive portfolio diversification.
Key highlights for January
- At the end of January 2025, the SET Index fell by 6.1 percent to close at 1,314.50 points.
- Compared to the end of 2024, industry groups that outperformed the SET Index were Financials and Energy.
- SET’s and Market for Alternative Investment (mai)’s average daily trading value in January 2025 decreased 17.2 percent YoY to THB 39.01 billion (approx. USD 1.16 billion). However, local institutional investors’ trading proportion demonstrated an upward trend, staying above 10 percent of total trading value for four consecutive months.
- In January, there was one newly listed company on mai, namely Pro Inside pcl (PIS).
- The Thai stock exchange’s forward P/E ratio at the end of January 2025 was 15.0 times, above the Asian stock market’s average of 12.6 times. The historical P/E ratio stood at 17.7 times, exceeding the Asian stock market’s average of 14.2 times.
- Dividend yield ratio at the end of January 2025 was 3.64 percent, higher than the Asian stock markets’ average of 3.28 percent.
Derivatives Market
- Thailand Futures Exchange (TFEX)’s daily trading volume in January 2025 averaged 391,493 contracts, down 27.3 percent from the previous month largely due to the higher trading volume of Single Stock Futures and SET50 Index Futures. The YTD average daily trading volume in 2025 dropped 3 percent to 391,493 contracts mainly due to the decline in trading volume of Single Stock Futures and SET50 Index Futures.
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