Mitihoon – InnovestX Securities, the investment flagship of SCBX Group, analyzes that the global economy and investment landscape in 2025 will be characterized by “high volatility and low returns.” The firm advises a trading-focused investment strategy to capitalize on short-term market opportunities. The global economy will be driven by four key factors, dubbed the 4Ts: 1. Transition – A gradual shift from high inflation to a soft landing. 2. Trump – The resurgence of “America First” policies, reshaping global economic and trade dynamics. 3.Technology – The acceleration of innovation through AI and green technologies. 4. Turmoil – Worldwide disruptions caused by escalating geopolitical conflicts. For Thailand, economic growth is projected at 2.7%, though challenges are expected from the potential impact of U.S. economic and foreign policies under Donald Trump. Recommended investments for the first half of 2025 include gold and high-quality bonds, given the global volatility. The firm anticipates that the stock market will remain unstable, focusing on defensive stocks and value stocks with strong recovery potential. Key equity markets recommended for investment include the United States, China, India, and Vietnam. In Thailand, net profit growth for listed companies is expected to grow by 22% YoY, with the SET Index targeted at 1,550 points. Sectors likely to deliver standout performance include those with a high share of domestic revenue and defensive characteristics, such as food and beverage and commerce industries.
Mr. Sukit Udomsirikul, Chief Research Officer at InnovestX Securities, stated, “The overall investment landscape in 2025 is expected to exhibit ‘high volatility and low returns.’ As such, the most suitable investment strategy for the Year of the Snake is ‘Trading Investments,’ a shift from our perspective on 2024, which was deemed ‘A Year of Value Investing.’ Unlike early 2024, the stock market no longer presents undervalued opportunities, making a trading-focused approach more relevant for the current market conditions.”
Dr. Piyasak Manason, Head of Economic Research at InnovestX Securities, stated, “The global economy in 2025 will be driven by four key forces, referred to as the 4Ts: 1. Transition – The global economy is transitioning toward a soft landing, marked by economic slowdown and declining inflation. 2. Trump – The resurgence of the ‘America First’ policy, encompassing trade, immigration, and fiscal measures, raises concerns about fiscal stability and international relations. 3. Technology – The transformative power of AI and green technologies continues to act as a key growth driver. 4. Turmoil – Global instability persists due to international conflicts, such as the Ukraine crisis, tensions in the Middle East, and confrontations in the South China Sea.”
“For Thailand, the economy is facing its own set of challenges, summarized as the 4Ts: 1. Tightened Economy – Thailand’s manufacturing sector is losing its competitive edge. 2. Time to Cut – Monetary policy remains overly restrictive; the Bank of Thailand must reduce interest rates promptly and consistently. 3. Tax Reform – The government urgently needs comprehensive tax reform to mitigate fiscal risks. 4. Temperature Rising – Escalating environmental challenges demand immediate attention. InnovestX forecasts Thailand’s GDP growth at 2.7%, supported by continued fiscal stimulus, while monetary policy hinges on timely interest rate cuts by the Bank of Thailand. Delays in rate reductions could exacerbate the domestic economic slowdown. As of January 2025, private investment and consumption are projected to grow by 0.5% and 2.2%, respectively, while international tourist arrivals are expected to reach 40 million. However, exports are unlikely to show significant growth.”
Mr. Sutthichai Kumworachai, Head of Investment Strategy at InnovestX Securities, stated,
“The key challenges for 2025 include: 1. Economic and geopolitical policies of Donald Trump – Expected to significantly influence the global economy and financial markets. 2. Increased volatility in global financial markets – Driven by the accelerated flow and frequency of information and news. 3. U.S. stock market risks – While the outlook remains positive, the high valuation of stocks above their historical averages presents the possibility of corrections if unexpected events occur. 4. Global economic struggles – The world faces two major issues: rising debt levels and the effects of climate change. 5. Impact of Donald Trump’s tax hikes – Likely to lead to a currency war, creating further challenges for the global economy.
On the positive side, global financial markets may find support from monetary easing policies by central banks and economic stimulus measures implemented by several countries, such as China, aimed at mitigating the effects of U.S. tax hikes.”
Mr. Visakorn Kirivan, CFA, an Investment Strategist of Wealth Products & Strategy department at InnovestX Securities, commented, “The recommended asset allocation for 2025 continues to favor equities over bonds, with gold playing a key role in diversification. Investors should prioritize ‘selective investing’ in 2025 as it marks a year of normalization. Unlike the strong profit growth seen in 2024, such growth is unlikely to repeat this year. Political factors, including the return of Donald Trump, have already been priced into asset values since the election results were announced. Concerns surrounding Trump 2.0 policies mirroring those of Trump 1.0 may not materialize in the same way, given the current high levels of U.S. inflation and debt ceilings, which create a different economic environment.
We recommend selective investments in U.S. value-style mid- and small-cap stocks to capitalize on expected economic stimulus policies under Trump. Additionally, we suggest focusing on emerging markets with strong growth potential, such as China and Vietnam, which are less impacted by U.S. import tariffs compared to the past. On the fixed-income side, we recommend global bonds with durations of 3–5 years to lock in returns while mitigating risks. Diversification with gold is also encouraged to manage portfolio risk effectively.”
Mr. Sitthichai Duangrattanachaya, Senior Global Equity Strategist at InnovestX Securities, concluded,
“In the first half of 2025, the U.S. economy is expected to remain strong and outperform other regions. Interest rates are likely to decline, driven by the Federal Reserve’s stance and President Trump’s economic policies, which focus on cost-cutting and tax reductions. We recommend financial stocks, small-cap equities, and stocks benefiting from lower taxes, such as HD, V, COST, and WMT.
For Thailand, the economy is showing signs of recovery, supported by positive trends in tourism, consumption, and investment during the first half of the year. While global economic conditions are balanced, domestic economic stimulus measures and interest rate cuts are expected to offset the impact of export slowdowns.
We recommend focusing on large-cap defensive stocks with high domestic exposure, classified into the following themes:
- Value – AOT, BBL, CPALL.
- Dividend – AP, BCP, LHHOTEL.
- Laggard – BCH, GPSC, HMPRO.
- Mid-Small Cap Growth – AMATA, AU, INSET.
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